Even with recent housing market improvements, sales and construction are still at very low levels, while prices are still falling in most areas.
Worse, those signs of improvement may not be sustainable. One reason is that millions of foreclosures were delayed from late 2010 until this year, as banks wrangled — and eventually settled — with government officials over foreclosure abuses. With the legal issues now out of the way, foreclosures have resumed, with another five million expected between now and 2015, in addition to more than five million homes already lost, according to Moody’s Analytics.
If the economy were strengthening, the price declines from more foreclosures could be limited by an influx of first-time buyers and real-estate investors. But with the economy slowing again, housing could also relapse, with falling prices provoking more defaults, foreclosures and distress sales, and ever-lower prices.
That dark scenario was a factor last week when the Federal Reserve downgraded its economic outlook, citing a housing market that “remains depressed.”
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